Not a detective

Page 158

For example, tricks like "following the opponent's gesture in the next round," "telling the opponent what you're going to do in advance to play mind games," and "flipping the card in the manner of the game's name, rock, paper, scissors" have been constantly emerging. However, according to big data, the World Rock-Paper-Scissors Association has compiled statistics on the percentage of moves made by players in their past championships. The statistics show that the probability of people choosing rock is 35.4%, and the probability of choosing paper is 35.0%, which is not much different. However, the probability of choosing scissors is 29.6%, which is a significant difference.

People may dislike using scissors because paper and rock are easy to make, while the scissors hand gesture is awkward.

So, it seems we can conclude that if we know nothing, it's best to play "cloth," as this will increase the win rate by 5%. It's not a huge improvement, but it's better than nothing.

So, should we use such simple data conclusions?

No, while this is a "strategy" to increase the win rate, it is not a "sure-win" method.

Principal Komiya's ability to win repeatedly in rock-paper-scissors is not only due to the traps she set in the rules, but also because she is naturally skilled in this game and is an expert in it.

Even under the most basic rules, without using her own hand gestures, she can achieve an astonishingly high win rate, relying on her own "sure-win method".

"Scissors."

The two looked at each other and spoke the first sentence at the same time.

Then start shaking your right hand.

"Stone."

Principal Komiya was completely absorbed, more focused than ever before. Her eyes were fixed on Higashion Suetsuki's eyes, and she didn't look away.

"cloth--"

In the instant she made her final move, she shifted her gaze to Moyue's right fist and then swung her hand out with lightning speed.

Pause for two seconds.

Asakawa Riku announced:

"Principal Komiya played scissors, while Shinonome Suetsuki played paper. Scissors beat paper, therefore, Principal Komiya won one point."

Zashiki-warashi no Aki: Chapter Twenty-Seven: The Peeping Tom

Principal Komiya's strategy is—"the spy."

The principle is that most people's fists will show signs of a hand gesture at the moment they swing their arms down.

If it's rock, keep your fist clenched; if it's paper or scissors, loosen your fist slightly.

If you can spot this sign in that instant, you can determine the opponent's intended gesture, adjust your strategy accordingly, and secure victory.

Although it sounds easy, it is actually quite difficult to do.

First, you must have the dynamic vision to observe subtle changes in the other person, accurately capture their habits, and ensure the ability to make quick decisions within two or three seconds.

Doing all these things in the instant the "rock, paper, scissors" are called is by no means an easy task.

Principal Komiya's reaction and observation skills are better than average, but only at an excellent level, not at the level of superpowers.

There are reasons why this can be done.

—Because of the existence of "self-made gestures".

The addition of two strange objects, "gun" and "three," to the familiar rock-paper-scissors game completely changes the game. It interferes with people's thinking, making them unable to resist thinking about how to make those two gestures. Even though it has been sealed by additional rules, it is still impossible to completely ignore it; people will always subconsciously consider it.

The pattern has become more complex, and since this is a game of "psychological warfare," it is difficult for Shinonome Suetsuki to adopt the method of "reflexive action without thinking"; she must think.

Once you start thinking, you'll consciously prepare the gestures you've decided on in advance, making it easier for the corresponding signs to appear.

To counter the "peeping hand," you can only throw punches randomly, relying entirely on luck to prevent your opponent from seeing any signs. But unfortunately, you can't do that in this game.

Just like what Class President Kato said back then, the weight of victory or defeat, the expectations of the class, and the intangible sunk costs—these factors will make the challenger think things through with all their might.

The moment you start thinking, you're caught in a trap—that's a clever trick.

There is another way to break this, which is to "strike first," like Shinonome Suetsuki did the first time, striking before the disaster could react.

However, since there are no more self-made gestures, going first becomes meaningless. In ordinary rock-paper-scissors, going first is just giving away points, so this solution is also not feasible.

Asakawa Riku witnessed the entire process.

Higashino Suetsuki is the kind of person who is easy to guess, or rather, she is too relaxed. When she clenched her fist downwards, you could already see her fingers loosening slightly.

Therefore, it can only be either "scissors" or "paper," and it absolutely cannot be "fist."

Of course, in this game, it could also be "gun" or "three," both of which require releasing your finger, but these have been banned in the additional rules.

Only two options remain.

For Principal Xiao Gong, she had already come up with a solution in that instant; there was only one option: to play "scissors".

If "Scissors" comes out, the worst outcome is a draw, but luckily "Paper" comes out in the last month, so "Scissors" finally wins a point.

Yes, Asakawa Riku saw it very clearly, so he could do it too.

...In fact, he could not only tell that the last month's answer would be "scissors or paper", but also narrow it down to "paper".

By observing the movement of the palm muscles and subtle changes in the skin at that instant, one can predict the movement of the opponent's fingers. This is a fundamental skill for martial artists.

Therefore, rock-paper-scissors is a meaningless game for Riku Asakawa. It may seem like a game of luck and psychology, but it actually involves "actions," which changes its nature.

Even cutting someone's fist open with scissors isn't a difficult task.

He didn't even need to stare at Moyue's right hand; that would be too obvious. He could confirm it with just a glance out of the corner of his eye.

In the few seconds of that last exchange, his other eye was looking at Principal Komiya.

I noticed her unnatural gaze and her impromptu change of tactics; it was quite obvious.

The "peeping hand" cheating method is similar to slow play, but in reality, Principal Komiya did not slow play; she made her move the instant she shouted "paper."

So, can this be considered cheating?

After hesitating for a moment, Asakawa Riku finally declared Principal Komiya the winner:

"Principal Komiya played scissors, while Shinonome Suetsuki played paper. Scissors beat paper, therefore, Principal Komiya won one point."

He did not reveal the method used by Principal Komiya's "peeping hands".

There are two reasons. First, being able to see the signs of the opponent's attack should also be considered part of "personal strength." After reflecting on Kato's match, he decided to believe this. Just as Kato's hearing is not considered cheating, Principal Komiya's eyesight should not be considered cheating either. Since she can see, it means she is very strong.

Just like in his case, if you want him to play fairly, you'd probably have to blindfold him completely before he plays rock-paper-scissors.

(Even so, with some practice, he'll probably gradually be able to distinguish the different sounds that scissors, rock, and paper make in an instant...)

Moreover, if you discover that the other party is "peeping," you can actually turn the tables on them. For example, you can pretend to let go of their hand and then clench it into a fist at the last moment, which would be a great way to get revenge.

Ultimately, it was because Shinonome Suetsuki was too lax and didn't take it seriously at all.

The second reason is rather special. Asakawa Riku still doesn't understand what the "trap" that Shinonome Suetsuki set up meant.

...It's like a thorn stuck in my heart, it hasn't done anything yet, but it's still there, subtly sticking out.

Disturbing.

To be fair, he decided to ignore Principal Komiya's actions this time, so that he wouldn't be accused of favoritism and could use it as leverage later.

...

“That’s great.”

Meanwhile, Principal Komiya was probably unaware of all the thoughts running through Asakawa Riku's mind; he was simply immersed in the joy of victory.

It's too early to call it a victory, but at least we've secured a crucial point, which is essentially match point in the best-of-three series.

Just one more point and it will be a true victory.

But she seemed oblivious to the fact that Dongyun Sueyue, standing to the side, still wore that indifferent, nonchalant expression, waving her hand and saying:

"Oh dear, my luck isn't so good... Did I use up all my luck playing mahjong? It's all your fault, Asakawa Riku. If I lose, it's all your fault."

"Stop talking nonsense and be serious."

Asakawa Riku sighed helplessly, then waved his hand, announcing the start of the next round of the match:

"Attention, both sides, the fourth round is about to begin."

Zashiki-warashi no Aki: Chapter Twenty-Eight - The Inevitable Victory Method

[Round 4]

...

Principal Komiya was still smiling.

There was no other reason; now that things had come to this point, she already had a "sure-win strategy."

The bombs that had been planted earlier had finally reached the point where they could be detonated.

Before the third round began, she said two things: "So, to avoid another tie, let's go back to the most basic rock-paper-scissors game." and "Yes, I want to add a rule: no more homemade gestures. Let's just use pure luck to decide the winner, okay?"

The following sentence was determined by the referee to become a new supplementary rule.

However, this rule has loopholes.

A closer look reveals that it does not prohibit "the use of all homemade gestures", but only "the use of one's own homemade gestures".

In other words... there's actually a hidden rule: "using someone else's homemade gestures" is still allowed!

In order to hide the bomb, Principal Komiya specifically said things like "return to the most primitive rock-paper-scissors" and "let the most ordinary luck decide the outcome."

It's all a smokescreen.

"Stop using your own homemade gestures."

Actually, if you listen carefully to this sentence, it sounds very unnatural, and you could even say it's full of loopholes. This simple linguistic trap was thought up on the spot, and there's a risk that it will be seen through.

Therefore, Principal Xiao Gong did not rush to detonate immediately. In the third round, he still used "rock, paper, scissors" to throw punches as usual.

This was to lure Shinonome Suetsuki into believing that the game would be decided by ordinary rock-paper-scissors rules, thus lowering her guard.

After that round of ordinary rock-paper-scissors, she must have been misled and failed to realize that the bomb was always detonated at the very end.

Principal Gong has now obtained his final trump card, the absolute murder weapon.

The effect of [three] is: to win against rock-paper-scissors, only to lose to the opponent's self-made gesture.

Right now, Higashion Suetsuki only knows how to play rock-paper-scissors, so whatever she plays is doomed! Even if she comes up with this language trap on the spot, she can only use the "gun" and not her own gestures. At worst, it will be a draw. So, no matter what, Principal Komiya has the advantage. After all, she has now reached match point, so there is no need to worry too much.

"Scissors."

By the time he uttered his first words, Principal Komiya could already hear the cheers of victory.

...If anyone's to blame, it's that despicable adult. I'm just older.

"Stone."

"cloth."

Principal Komiya didn't even look at it before throwing out the "three" gesture.

Then, at the same second, Moyue made a "scissors" gesture; the two gestures were only one finger apart.

...We won!

Principal Komiya was about to cheer, but the next second froze her smile in place.

"Principal Komiya played a 'three', and Shinonome Suetsuki played 'scissors'. Based on the head-to-head record, Shinonome Suetsuki wins and earns one point."

"……and many more!"

She quickly exclaimed, "What? Are you kidding me, Asakawa-san? Didn't I win?"

"No, I still remember the contents of both notes, so I won't make a mistake."

Asakawa Riku calmly shook his head: "The outcome of the game between scissors and three is that scissors wins. If you don't believe me, we can confirm it together after the game."

"……Well."

These words were like a bucket of cold water poured on Principal Xiao Gong, instantly calming her down.

Since that's been said, it's probably not a mistake, but rather the truth.

But...why?

She looked at Dongyun Sueyue with suspicion, unable to see through those beautiful eyes: "What exactly is the effect of your self-made gesture?"

She originally thought that the effect of "three" was the same as that of "gun," both of which were to defeat the three original gestures and only lose to the opponent's self-made gesture.

But it seems that's not the case now, otherwise the scissors wouldn't have been able to defeat it.

Could it be that the real weakness of [Three] is the scissors, and the opponent deliberately targeted this point to lure her into a trap?